Dutch online sales expected to increase 8%

Online revenue in the Netherlands is expected to increase 8 percent this year, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, the total retail revenue will increase only 2 percent. This is due to an expected decline in supermarket sales, because of a ban on selling tobacco in those stores.

These data come from the newest Retail Outlook from Dutch bank ING. According to the study, online revenue in the Netherlands increased 6 percent in 2023 compared to a year earlier. In 2022, sales actually decreased by 0.3 percent compared to 2021. After strong growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, ecommerce in the Netherlands seems to have returned to a more stable level.

Pure online sellers outgrow multichannel sellers

ING expects online sales to grow again this year, by 8 percent. This increase will come mainly from pure online sellers, who will outperform multichannel retailers. This is because consumers are relatively more like to buy in physical stores than through these retailers’ online channels.

‘A shift from brick-and-mortar stores to online sales channels is still expected’

Still, a further shift from physical to online sales channels is expected. “Not only because consumers continue to appreciate the convenience of online shopping, but also because multichannel retailers tend to offer a more extensive product range online than in-store”, the researchers said. Since last year, this expectation has not changed.

Shrinking supermarket sales

Sales growth in total retail sales is expected to decrease from 5 percent growth in 2023 to 2 percent this year. This is due to a decline in supermarket sales, of 1.5 percent. This amounts to a loss of 1.7 billion euros in sales. This decline is related to the introduction of the tobacco ban on July 1. It is the first time in 20 years that supermarket sales have shrunk.

Bankruptcies in ecommerce companies

Dutch online sellers face rising costs, like other retailers. These include rental, energy, purchasing and personnel costs that increased due to inflation. According to ING, 338 retail businesses went bankrupt last year as a result of this.

There were 13% more bankruptcies recorded in the first half of this year than in that period last year

In the first half of this year, already 13 percent more bankruptcies were recorded than in the same period in 2023. A whopping 29 percent of these involved online stores. Additionally, more businesses closed in the first half of 2024 than in that period last year. And three quarters of those involved online stores. This is because they generated minimal sales and voluntarily discontinued the business.