Dutch online turnover to grow 5 to 10% in 2023

As lockdowns were lifted earlier this year, the amount of online sales has dropped in the Netherlands. The total decline in online revenue is expected to reach 3 percent in 2022. However, online turnover growth will reach between 5 and 10 percent next year as a result of inflation.

During the first half of 2022, brick-and-mortar stores reopened, which resulted in less ecommerce sales in the Netherlands. The country has been dealing with an increase in prices, due to European inflation. In the second half of this year, online sales reached a minimal growth. As a result, the total amount of online sales is expected to decrease by 3 percent in 2022.

The online revenue growth in 2023 will be caused by inflation.

Although no record turnover should be expected anytime soon, Dutch bank ING said that retailers can expect an online revenue growth in 2023. This will be caused by the ongoing inflation. The growth will be between 5 and 10 percent.

Pure online players are generating more than in 2019

These predictions come from the newest Retail Outlook, a market analysis conducted by ING Research. A large part of Dutch retail turnover has shifted to the online segment this year, due to investments in logistics and data analysis.

Pure online players are currently making an estimate of 6 billion euros more than in 2019. The research expects a continuing shift towards the online segment, as consumers shop online more often and physical stores have not fully recovered their complete inventories.

Dutch retail is expected to reach a turnover growth of 7.5% in 2022.

Overall, Dutch retail is expected to reach a turnover growth of 7.5 percent by the end of this year. However, next year that growth will be less strong (2.5 percent). The lower purchasing power of consumers will also cause a decrease in sales volume of 1 percent in 2023.

More online than physical non-food stores

Although a small turnover growth is expected this and next year, there is still a lot of pressure on the viability of Dutch physical stores. Entrepreneurs have to deal with rising costs and lower margins. This pressure is reflected in the strong growth of the amount of online stores in the Netherlands. At the beginning of this year, for the first time, there were 22 percent more online than physical non-food stores.